A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
