Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
